How other countries would vote in the American election

By THE DATA TEAM

IT WAS never supposed to be this close. One candidate, Hillary Clinton, is a seasoned politician and one of the most powerful forces in her party. The other, Donald Trump, has no experience in office and is disliked by many Republican bigwigs. The results of such a lopsided contest should be clear. Yet, as the latest polls show, the presidential race is disturbingly close.

Over the past month, Mrs Clinton’s lead over Mr Trump has shrunk from seven percentage points to three. Betting markets now give Mr Trump a one-in-five chance of winning the election, while FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism outfit, puts his odds at over one-in-four. Investors are rattled: the VIX, a measure of stockmarket uncertainty in America, is at its highest level since June, when Britain voted to leave the European Union.

Whoever America decides to elect will have major political repercussions for the entire world. Pundits from Fiji to France are fretting over the results. But what if other countries could vote? YouGov, a pollster, has conducted a survey of 19 different nations, asking people whom they would rather have as the next president of the United States: Mr Trump or Mrs Clinton.

Much like peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, Mr Trump’s appeal seems limited to America. He would win less than 25% of the vote in all of the other countries surveyed. Despite his recent claim that he “is a big fan of Hindu [sic] and a big fan of India”, his admiration is not reciprocated: just 20% of Indians would vote for him. His polling numbers elsewhere are even more dismal. The Republican candidate catches the fancy of just 12% of voters in Vietnam and 9% of those in Malaysia. In Denmark, less than 4% of respondents said that they would choose him over Mrs Clinton.

Mr Trump’s rise parallels that of populist parties in Europe. YouGov’s data show that he indeed polls well with supporters of right-wing parties like France’s National Front and the Sweden Democrats.

While most of the world seems to have their hearts set against him, Mr Trump should sleep soundly knowing that he has won the admiration of at least one group of foreigners: the UK Independence Party (UKIP). Their supporters prefer the braggadocious billionaire by 43% to 29%. Small wonder, then, that Nigel Farage, UKIP’s sporadic leader, and Mr Trump are on such cosy terms. Mr Trump has invited his British counterpart to speak at rallies and seems to be somewhat inspired by Britain’s vote to leave the EU. By his own account, a Trump victory would be like “Brexit times five”.