The past is past. Either we learn from it or we don’t. Donald Trump seems not to be bothered about the lessons of yesteryear. The braggart US president is intent on making history, by misgoverning on a global scale. Mr Trump has stirred the roiling cauldron of Middle East politics, and not lightly but with careless vigour. On Monday Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates severed ties with the uber-rich Gulf state of Qatar, which shares the world’s largest reservoir of gas with Iran, Riyadh’s hated rival. The blockade attempts to cut off Qatar from the rest of the world: the land border has been sealed; Qatari overflights banned; and shipping lanes closed. The demands to lift the blockade include, absurdly, shutting al-Jazeera, the TV voice of the Arab spring. Qatari citizens are being asked to leave surrounding countries. This is a casus belli by almost any definition. When the drumbeat of war sounds, the world’s superpower usually takes away the drumsticks. But not Mr Trump. He tweeted that the Saudi-UAE move would begin to end the “horror of terrorism”, endorsing Qatar’s isolation. In blatantly backing one side, Mr Trump was playing with the safety of more than 11,000 American and coalition troops in the US al-Udeid airbase, from which the battle against Islamic State is run.
Mr Trump has blundered into a situation sparked by hackers but grounded in existential fears. What is troubling is that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi acted after meeting Mr Trump. They – and others like Egypt – believed he would sanction their move. On Twitter Mr Trump did. The Saudis and the UAE loathe Doha’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood, viewed as a mortal threat by Arab regimes. Qatar also hosts Hamas and the Taliban, although this is with the tacit approval of the US, which wants such groups isolated but around to talk to. Such is the anger that deep emnity has been put aside – recent leaks suggest pro-Israeli thinktanks back the Saudi-UAE attempt to cut off Qatar. The root of today’s troubles can be traced back to 1995, when the current Qatari ruler’s father ousted his pro-Saudi father from power. Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarded the family coup as a dangerous precedent to Gulf ruling families. Doha, running on gas, plotted its own role and deepened relations with Tehran. Qatar’s version of austere Islam heightens its difference with Saudi Arabia by allowing women to drive and go about unveiled, and letting foreigners drink alcohol.
Qatar is no liberal democracy: it’s an absolute monarchy with an appalling record on labour rights. Hundreds of migrant workers died creating the country’s best-known landmarks. What angers Arab rulers, however, is Qatar’s role in siding with Egyptian protesters against the Mubarak regime and backing Islamists in post-Gaddafi Libya. In backing the “Arab street”, Doha has been supported by Turkey, which is now set to deploy troops in Qatar. The Middle East’s balance of power rests between Sunni Gulf monarchies, the axis of Qatar and Turkey which promotes political Islam, and the Shia crescent centred on Iran. So many of the region’s conflicts – in Libya, Yemen and Syria – are now simply proxy wars between these regional actors. Hot-headed comments about taking the fight to Tehran, such as those of the Saudi dauphin last month, will simply stoke the flames. On the ground sectarian hatred hardens. The deadly terror strike against the Tehran parliament, which Iran blames on Riyadh but is claimed by Isis, comes after bloody clashes in eastern Saudi Arabia between security forces and Shia protesters. From the start, Washington should have built relationships with all sides to lower tensions. Mr Trump was too eager in deciding who his friends were. Some relationships have reaped the Trump family considerable benefits. Notably, Ivanka Trump’s female entrepreneurs fund was promised a staggering $100m from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, countries chastised for not taking in a single Syrian refugee. All this while Mr Trump pursues a policy contrary to his country’s self-interest. That is a folly of his own making – one that is unlikely to end well.