24 states could ban abortion in two years if Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed

If Judge Brett Kavanaugh is appointed to the US Supreme Court, his tenure could represent the greatest threat to reproductive freedoms since the landmark 1973 case Roe v Wade legalized abortion in America, many reproductive rights groups have said.

Although Kavanaugh’s record on reproductive rights is limited, President Trump made anti-abortion views a litmus test for filling retired Justice Anthony Kennedy’s seat. Kavanaugh is a Catholic, and in the past argued against allowing a pregnant 17-year-old undocumented migrant to obtain an abortion.

A final vote on Kavanaugh’s confirmation could come as early as Saturday. Republicans have a two-vote margin to approve Kavanaugh, whose confirmation process has been mired in allegations of attempted rape and sexual assault. He denies the allegations.

Already, there are cases in the pipeline that could give the supreme court an opportunity to severely limit women’s access to abortion, either by overturning Roe v Wade or hollowing out its protections.

• Nearly half of US states could limit abortion within two years

  There are already two cases before appellate courts, one level down from the supreme court, that could give the country’s highest court an opportunity to limit abortion access as soon as June 2019.

  If Roe v Wade was overturned, 24 US states would likely move to ban or severely limit abortion upon reconvening, at earliest within seven months of the supreme court’s decision.

• If Roe v Wade was overturned, four states would automatically ban abortion

  Mississippi, Louisiana, North Dakota and South Dakota, already have “trigger laws”, or statutes that would automatically ban abortion if Roe v Wade were overturned.

  However, across broad parts of America, the move would also likely prompt many other state legislatures to try to pass new laws to restrict abortion access. Those most likely to do so are those which have already enacted severe restrictions.

• Twenty-one states already have severe limits

  For example, 21 states limit when a pregnant woman can get an abortion based on the age of the fetus. For example, in Iowa, that restriction is based on when doctors can hear a heartbeat, at about six weeks. Because that is before most women know they are pregnant, it is effectively a de facto ban on abortion.

  Laws that ban abortion before a fetus can survive outside the womb are unconstitutional, but 21 states have nevertheless passed such bans, most at 20 weeks. Most fetuses do not survive outside the womb before 24 weeks. A full-term pregnancy is 39 weeks. Many of these laws are the subject of court challenges.

• Twenty-four states have anti-abortion legislatures

  Twenty-four states have anti-abortion legislatures, making it likely they would move to enact abortion restrictions after a supreme court decision further restricted abortion. They would also be likely to several restrict access.

Source: Center for Reproductive Rights