Majorities across Europe think Russia will invade Ukraine in 2022 and believe both Nato and the EU should stand by Kyiv, according to a study whose authors suggest the crisis could end up dramatically changing the way Europeans view their security.
“The data suggests something of a geopolitical awakening in Europe,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which carried out the polling in seven countries, accounting for two-thirds of the EU’s population.
“EU states have been portrayed as divided, weak and absent on Ukraine, but European citizens are united: they agree Vladimir Putin may pursue military action, and that Europe, together with its Nato partners, should ride to Ukraine’s aid.”
The study’s authors said the survey showed there was “no longer much truth in the cliche that Europeans believe war is unthinkable and take peace for granted. They perceive their world as being in a prewar rather than postwar state.”
The polling, carried out in late January, showed that majorities in six of the seven countries surveyed believed Russia would invade Ukraine during the course of 2022, with those nearest to Europe’s eastern border generally most convinced.
Finland (44%) was a slight outlier, but elsewhere 51% of respondents in France and Italy, 52% in Germany, 55% in Sweden, 64% Romania and 73% of those in Poland said they thought a Russian invasion was likely this year.
Majorities in all seven countries saw Nato and its 30 individual member states as the main defenders of Ukrainian sovereignty, but also clearly felt the EU bore a strong responsibility to come to Ukraine’s defence in the event of Russian aggression.
In Finland, 56% of respondents felt the EU would be well positioned to come to Ukraine’s aid and 59% thought Nato would. Elsewhere, the figures were: 53% and 55% for France; 47% and 50% for Germany; 64% and 67% for Italy; 80% and 79% for Poland; 57% and 63% for Romania; and 61% and 64% for Sweden.
Asked who they most trusted to protect EU citizens’ interests if Russia did invade Ukraine, at least half of those surveyed in each country – rising to more than 60% in Poland, Sweden, Italy, and Romania – said they trusted the EU. In two countries, Sweden and Finland, trust in the EU was even greater than in Nato.
Trust in Washington as being equally committed to defending EU citizens’ interests was markedly lower, with more respondents in all countries bar Poland and Romania saying they trusted Germany more than the US. Even in Poland, Nato (75%) and the EU (67%) were seen as more reliable than the US.
“While most Europeans still trust Nato to defend Europe, ‘Nato’ is no longer just another name for ‘the US’,” the authors said. “Europeans trust Nato to protect their interests more than they trust the US to do so.”
The study also proves “Brexit means Brexit”, they said: despite London’s “much-publicised show of solidarity with Kyiv”, few saw a role for the UK. Only in Poland (66%) and Sweden (52%) did majorities feel Britain should come to Ukraine’s aid.
The study also showed Europeans were prepared to accept significant, potentially long-term threats as a result of defending Ukraine, including the possible arrival of large numbers of refugees, higher energy costs, economic coercion, cyber-attacks and the threat of Russian military action.
Respondents in Poland, Romania and Sweden were more likely to say that coming to Ukraine’s aid was “worth the risk” of all these possible consequences, with 53% of those surveyed in Poland in particular saying that supporting Ukraine was even worth the risk of possible military action aimed at their country.
Perhaps critically, however, citizens in France and Germany were the least willing to bear any of these potential burdens – suggesting they believed the possible costs of doing so may outweigh the rewards, the report’s authors said.
Majorities in all countries apart from Sweden (47%) said energy dependency was the biggest single challenge from Russia’s stance towards Ukraine, a view that was most pronounced in Poland (77%).
Putin may be surprised to see that many Europeans “would see another Russian invasion of Ukraine as an attack on not just a neighbouring country, but on the European security order itself”, the authors concluded.
“And it is striking that so many respondents – from north, south, east, and west – think this order should be protected.” With some clearly less willing to bear the cost than others, “the way Europeans deal with the next few weeks will be pivotal to the future of European security”, they said.