Ukraine-Russia war latest: Tajikistan issues temporary travel ban to Russia; 'well-provisioned' Ukrainian troops could see off summer offensive

The bodies of two people have been discovered in the Tisa River near Ukraine's border with Romania, Ukraine's state border guard reported. 

"Despite the lowering of the water level in the Tisa, it is extremely dangerous to swim across it, especially at night," a statement by the border guard said.

"Sharp stones, roots, tree debris, and the swift and cold stream can pose danger to life and health."

The identities of the individuals are yet to be released. 

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, a total of 24 people have died trying to cross the river, according to the border guard. 

Law enforcement agencies have uncovered nearly 400 criminal networks that help individuals evade military service by helping them flee abroad, according to Andriy Demchenko, a spokesperson for the state border guard service.

Russian troops have taken over the village of Novobakhmutivka in Ukraine's Donetsk region, according to the Interfax news agency - citing Russia's defence ministry.

The village is close to the town of Ocheretyne which has become a focal point for fighting in recent days. 

Russian forces are also reported to have repelled a series of counterattacks from the Ukrainians near Chasiv Yar, Interfax reported the ministry saying.

This is another key point in the Donetsk region - lying less than 10km from the occupied city of Bakhmut - where the two sides have clashed repeatedly.

Russia's Immortal Regiment March - which takes place on Victory Day to celebrate the defeat of Nazi Germany during the Second World War - has been cancelled for the second year in a row. 

Due to take place on 9 May, the march usually sees thousands take to the streets with photographs of veterans, the UK's Ministry of Defence said. 

But this year the photographs will be displayed in cars and public locations from 1-11 May.

Victory Day parades in five Russian regions will also not go ahead due to security concerns, according to the MoD.

The regions of Bryansk, Pskov, Ryazan, Kursk and Belgorod are all in western Russia and are deemed vulnerable to Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes.

The parade was cancelled last year due to a UAV attack on the Kremlin.

On 7 May, a few days before the parade was scheduled to take place, the presidential inauguration of Vladimir Putin will be held in Moscow.

The MoD said the event may prompt protests.

Russian officials have this morning threatened the West with a "severe" response if frozen Russian assets are confiscated.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added Russia would never give up territories seized from Ukraine in exchange for the return of frozen assets.

"Our motherland is not for sale," Ms Zakharova wrote on the Telegram messaging app. 

"All Russian assets must remain untouched because otherwise there will be a severe response to Western thievery. 

"Many in the West have already understood this. Alas, not everyone." 

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added that there was lots of Western money that could be targeted in countermeasures put in place by Moscow. 

What assets have been frozen, and why sieze them now?

Today's comments from the Kremlin are the latest in a back-and-forth between Russia and the West after the US House of Representatives passed a bill allowing the Biden administration to confiscate Russian assets held in American banks and transfer them to Ukraine.

The assets - worth around $300bn - were frozen at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, as were transactions with Russia's central bank and finance ministry.

So far EU countries and the US have held off confiscating the assets for fears it could escalate tensions - or cause other countries like China and Saudi Arabia to fear for their own European assets.

Ukraine is very likely to stabilise the frontlines in the coming months, with the possibility of starting a counteroffensive later this year.

According to analysts from think tank, Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are suffering from widespread tactical failures.

As long as the Russian military continues with these struggles, Ukrainian forces will be able to exploit them, especially with the help of military aid from the US.

If so, a counteroffensive later this year or early next could be possible, the ISW says.

A 57-year-old Russian national has been arrested in connection to the murder of two Ukrainians who died after being stabbed at a German shopping centre.

Upper Bavaria South Police said in a statement yesterday that a 36-year-old Ukrainian man died from his injuries near the Tengelmann Centre in the market town of Murnau, Bavaria.

The second Ukrainian man, 23, died in a nearby hospital later the same evening.

The suspect was arrested at his home, which police said was not far from the crime scene.

It is not clear if the suspect has been charged or not.

The foreign office in Tajikistan has advised all citizens to "temporarily refrain" from travelling to Russia.

The advisory was issued after officials expressed concerns about Tajiks being "unjustifiably" denied entry to Russia, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.

Human rights organisations have also reported rising levels of prejudice against people from Central Asia in Russia after the shooting at a concert hall in Moscow on 22 March.

Islamist terror group Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) claimed responsibility for the attack in which at least 130 people were killed.

All four of the accused gunmen are from Tajikistan.

Yesterday, a 12th person - also a Tajik citizen - was detained in connection with the attack.

Two Russian journalists who worked for a group founded by the late opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, have been arrested on "extremism" charges.

Konstantin Gabov and Sergey Karelin are accused of preparing material for a YouTube channel run by Navalny's Foundation for Fighting Corruption, which is outlawed by Russian authorities. 

Both denied the charges, for which they will be detained for a minimum of two months, before any trials begin. 

They face a minimum of two years in prison and a maximum of six years for alleged "participation in an extremist organisation," according to Russian courts.

On Friday, a journalist working for the Russian edition of Forbes magazine, Sergei Mingazov, was detained on charges of spreading false information about the Russian military.

The arrests are the latest in a crackdown on dissent and independent media by the Russian government. 

Mr Gabov, who was detained in Moscow, is a freelance producer who has worked for the likes of Reuters.

Mr Karelin - who has dual citizenship with Israel - has worked for a number of outlets, including The Associated Press. 

He was a cameraman for German media outlet Deutsche Welle until the Kremlin banned the outlet from operating in Russia in February 2022.

Ukrainian forces that are "well-provisioned" will likely be able to prevent Russian advances in an expected summer offensive. 

In the past, Ukrainian forces have prevented Russian forces from making tactical gains in large-scale offensive efforts, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says.

The ISW predicts that it is unlikely any sort of summer offensive from the Russians will be significantly larger or more intense than their previous efforts.

However, the key factor is Ukraine being "well-provisioned". 

The ISW adds that Russian forces will make tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for military aid from the US to arrive. 

Russian forces have opportunities to make significant tactical gains in the Avdiivka area and pursue an operationally significant objective with the seizure of Chasiv Yar," the ISW says, adding that neither of these efforts is likely to develop in the near future.

Following on from our last post, Ukraine has claimed a Russian drone attack heavily damaged a hotel in the southern city of Mykolaiv.

Mykolaiv's governor Vitaly Kim said Shahed-131/136 type drones were used in the strike which "heavily damaged" the hotel building. 

"A fire broke out, which was quickly extinguished... there are no casualties," Mr Kim said. 

A heat-generating infrastructure was damaged as well as the windows of a separate hotel.

Russia's RIA state news agency, citing Russian underground fighters in the region, confirmed they had hit a shipbuilding plant and a hotel in Mykolaiv where English-speaking mercenaries fighting in Ukraine were housed.

Ukraine's air force said four other drones launched by Russia were destroyed around the capital, Kyiv, the central Vinnytsia and Kirovohrad regions, and over the western Khmelnytskyi region.