Elderly single-person households projected to make up over 20% of Japan's total in 2050

TOKYO -- Housing and support measures will be increasingly needed in Japan as over one in five households will be occupied by a single elderly person living alone in 2050, according to a recent government projection.

The number of single-member households consisting of a person aged at least 65 is estimated to reach 10.84 million, or 20.6% of all households, by 2050, according to the April 12 projection from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

Due to an increase in the number of unmarried people, there will be 23.3 million single-person households, accounting for 44.3% of the total, and the average number of members per household is projected to fall to 1.92.

Estimates by the institute are made every five years, and the latest figures are based on the 2020 census. The institute projected the number of future households for the following five categories: singles, married couples without children, married couples with one or more children, single parents with one or more children, and others.

The total number of households is expected to peak at 57.73 million in 2030 and decrease to 52.61 million in 2050. Single-member households will increase from 21.15 million in 2020 to 24.53 million in 2036. From there, the figure begins to fall, and is predicted to stand at 23.3 million in 2050.

The number of elderly single-person households will grow from 7.38 million in 2020 (13.2% of the total) to 1.47 times that number by 2050. Among these households, the proportion of unmarried people is projected to jump from 33.7% to 59.7% for men and from 11.9% to 30.2% for women.

The estimated increase in the number of elderly single-person households is due in part to the percentage of unmarried people among baby boomers' children, who will be in their 70s in 30 years, and others will be higher than in the past. The proportion of singles among those aged 65 and over will rise from 16.4% in 2020 to 26.1% for men, and from 23.6% to 29.3% for women in 2050

The number of households with a married couple and children will decline from 14.01 million in 2020 to 11.3 million in 2050. The proportion of such households reached 40% in the 1980s, but will drop to around 20% due to the declining birth rate. Households consisting of married couples alone will decrease from 11.21 million to 9.95 million, and households with a single parent and children will fall from 5.03 million to 4.85 million.

Households headed by the elderly are expected to surge from 20.97 million in 2020 to 24.04 million in 2050, an increase of 3.07 million. Of those, households headed by people aged 75 and above will rise by 4.25 million to hit 14.91 million.

The number of elderly people living alone without relatives is also expected to increase. Measures to secure housing and support for the elderly will accordingly become an urgent necessity.

(Japanese original by Shunsuke Kamiashi, Lifestyle, Science & Environment News Department)